Turning Point Forecast
For the
Pivot Research
& Trading Co.
3203 Provence
Place
Thousand Oaks,
Ca. 91362
805-493-4349
This
forecast was made using our Near Impulse Theoryä and methodology documented
in Research Report No. 101 entitled Using
Gann Based Expanding Cycles to Forecast Turning Points in the DJIA.
During
2000 and 2001, I posted quarterly forecasts of turning points for the major
stock indexes, demonstrating over 80% accuracy in the results. Beginning with
this report, I will be presenting a quarterly forecast of an individual stock
or commodity to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to any freely
traded market.
The
content of this report does not constitute investment advice and is to be used
with discretionary judgement by the trader. Guidelines for use of this
information are given below.
The dates listed as potential turning point dates in this report are expected to forecast a short-term change in the structure of the market. Three different outcomes may occur on these dates.
(1) The market may reverse direction. Thus if the market is in a
noticeable up move, a high pivot and reversal to down movement can be
anticipated. Traders making investment decisions based on this information are
urged to apply some mechanism to confirm the reversal before entering or
exiting a trade. A confirmation that has proved effective is a close beyond the
opposite extreme of the pivot bar. Therefore, if we are in the time vicinity of
a forecast point and the market is going up, look for a close below the low of
the high pivot bar as a confirmation of the pivot.
(2) The market may move sideways or congest. Congestion regions in a market may be caused by a self-canceling interaction of upward and downward influences. Generally these moves are characterized by a series if time bars with a range near that of the last bar of the previous move. This may be a series of inside or outside bars but with narrow range of closes. These moves are difficult to trade and should be avoided. They can de expected only about 5 to 10 % of the time.
(3) The market may accelerate in the direction it is already moving. These acceleration type moves are rare and are characteristic of marking the end of a larger trend move. They also may exhibit a false breakout as if a reversal before continuing in the dominate direction. These false breakouts generally occur on low volume days and are an opportunity for market specialist to pick up inventory prior to the continuation of the move. Whipsaws are common and the trader should have a close stop policy to deal with these occurrences.
Forecast Dates For
Amgen (AMGN)
The forecast dates for the Second Quarter, 2002 are listed in Table I below. Dates marked in the table are potential reversals of the dominant trend of the period.
|
Forecast Date |
High/Low Expectation |
Actual
pivot |
Result |
Result
using intraday signal |
|
4/1/02 |
H |
4/1 was outside day with close above previous high. |
Not a tradable pivot |
Long at 12:30 on 4/1 at 60.35 High was 61.48 |
|
4/11/02 |
L |
4/11 was a one-day high but unconfirmed as a pivot. |
Not a tradable pivot. |
Long at 10:10 on 4/10 at 58.08 High was 59.39 |
|
4/22/02 |
H |
4/23 low |
Two day tradable up swing. |
Long at 11:15 on 4/24 at 55.97 High was 57.05 |
|
5/3/02 |
H |
5/7 low |
Two day tradable up swing. |
Long at 10:10 on 5/6 at 48.44 Reversed to short at 11:35 at 48.22 Long at 8:35 on 5/8 at 47.79 High was 49.71 |
|
5/13/02 |
L |
5/13 low |
Gap up on 5/14, two day tradable swing. |
Long at 12:00 on 5/13 at 47.45 High was 52.55 |
|
5/16/02 |
H |
5/15 high |
Five day tradable down swing. |
Short at 9:35 on 5/16 at 50.50 Low was 47.85 |
|
6/6/02 |
H |
6/4 low 6/5 high |
6/4 pivot not tradable. 6/5 had a tradable five-day down swing. |
Long at 10:00 on 6/5 at 45.33 High was 45.87 Short at 10:15 on 6/6 at 44.43 Low was 40.50 |
|
6/12/02 |
L |
6/12 low |
Tradable up swing |
Long at 12:05 on 6/13 at 38.37 |
|
6/19/02 |
H |
6/19 high |
Tradable five day down swing |
Short at 10:55 at 43.55 |
|
6/26/02 |
H |
6/26 low |
Tradable two day upswing |
Long at 12:30 at 41.50 |
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