Turning Point Forecast
for the DJIA
Pivot Research & Trading Co.
3203 Provence Place
Thousand Oaks, Ca. 91362
805-493-4349
Turning Point Forecast For The DJIA Second Quarter, 2000
This forecast was made using the methodology documented in Research Report No. 101 entitled Using Gann Based Expanding Cycles to Forecast Turning Points in the DJIA. Additional correlations were made with forecasting techniques based on the methodologies of Donald Bradley and Welles Wilder’s Delta Theory. I have supplemented this forecast with an indication of an expectation of a high or low at the turning point. The reader is cautioned that the methodology for determining the nature of the pivot point has not been statistically verified and should not be relied upon for decision making. The information is being made available so that a verifiable statistical basis can be determined. You are urged to monitor current market action going into the forecast dates, using the guidelines below.
The content of this report does not constitute investment advice and is to be used with discretionary judgement by the trader. Guidelines for use of this information are given below.
The dates listed as potential turning point dates in this report are expected to forecast a short-term change in the structure of the market. Three different outcomes may occur on these dates.
(1) The market may reverse direction. Thus if the market is in a noticeable up move, a high pivot and reversal to down movement can be anticipated. Traders making investment decisions based on this information are urged to apply some mechanism to confirm the reversal before entering or exiting a trade. A confirmation that has proved effective is a close beyond the opposite extreme of the pivot bar. Therefore, if we are in the time vicinity of a forecast point and the market is going up, look for a close below the low of the high pivot bar as a confirmation of the pivot.
(2) The market may move sideways or congest. Congestion regions in a market may be caused by a self-canceling interaction of upward and downward influences. Generally these moves are characterized by a series if time bars with a range near that of the last bar of the previous move. This may be a series of inside or outside bars but with narrow range of closes. These moves are difficult to trade and should be avoided. They can de expected only about 5 to 10 % of the time.
(3) The market may accelerate in the direction it is already moving. These acceleration type moves are rare and are characteristic of marking the end of a larger trend move. They also may exhibit a false breakout as if a reversal before continuing in the dominate direction. These false breakouts generally occur on low volume days and are an opportunity for market specialist to pick up inventory prior to the continuation of the move. Whipsaws are common and the trader should have a close stop policy to deal with these occurrences.
Forecast Dates
The forecast dates for the second quarter are listed in Table I below. Analysis of weekly trend data indicates an expectation of upward movement during this period. Dates marked in the table are potential major and minor reversals of the dominant trend of the period.
|
Forecast Number |
Forecast Dates |
Influence Expected |
Actual Pivot |
Comment |
|
12 |
Tuesday, 4/4/00 |
Minor |
4/4 Low |
|
|
13 |
Monday, 4/10/00 |
Minor Low |
4/12 High |
|
|
14 |
Friday, 4/14/00 |
Minor |
4/14 Low |
|
|
15 |
Tuesday, 4/18/00 |
Major High |
No Pivot |
|
|
16 |
Monday, 4/24/00 |
Minor Low |
No Pivot |
|
|
17 |
Wednesday, 4/26/00 |
Minor High |
4/26 High |
|
|
18 |
Monday, 5/1/00 |
Minor Low |
No Pivot |
|
|
19 |
Friday, 5/12/00 |
Major High |
No Pivot |
|
|
20 |
Monday,5/15/00 |
High |
5/16 High |
|
|
21 |
Thursday, 5/18/00 |
Minor Low |
No Pivot |
|
|
22 |
Monday, 5/22/00 |
Minor High |
No Pivot |
|
|
Forecast Number |
Forecast Dates |
Influence Expected |
Actual Pivot |
Comment |
|
23 |
Friday, 6/2/00 |
Minor Low |
6/5 High |
|
|
24 |
Wednesday, 6/7/00 |
Minor High |
No Pivot |
|
|
25 |
Monday, 6/12/00 |
Major Low |
6/13 Low |
|
|
26 |
Thursday, 6/15/00 |
Minor High |
6/15 High |
|
|
27 |
Friday, 6/23/00 |
Major High |
6/22 Low |
|
|
28 |
Friday, 6/30/00 |
Minor Low |
6/30 Low |
|
The methodology used for these forecasts has proven very accurate in the past. While we cannot guarantee the results of your trading, we do provide a guarantee on the reliability of these forecast dates.
There are a total of 17 forecast dates for the second quarter. If a tradable pivot does not occur within plus or minus two days of at least 12 of these dates, you may request a full refund of the amount charged for the forecast. A tradable pivot is defined as a pivot resulting in at least 200 points’ movement from the pivot extreme. For example, if the nearest DJIA future contract puts in a low of 11,200 within plus or minus two days of a forecast date and achieves a price of 11,400 or greater before the next pivot, the forecast is considered successful.
If you believe you are due a refund, email us at refund@pivottrader.com. Refunds will be processed within 10 days of receipt of the request.