Turning Point Forecast
For
Japanese Yen Continuous Contract
Pivot Research & Trading Co.
3203 Provence Place
Thousand Oaks, Ca. 91362
FAX 805-493-4349
PHONE 805-493-4221
This forecast was made using our Near Impulse Theoryä and
methodology documented in Research Report No. 101 entitled Using Gann Based Expanding Cycles to Forecast Turning Points in the
DJIA.
During 2000 and 2001, I posted quarterly forecasts of
turning points for the major stock indexes, demonstrating over 80% accuracy in
the results. With this report, I will be presenting a quarterly forecast of an
individual stock, index or commodity to demonstrate the applicability of the
methodology to any freely traded market.
The content of this report does not constitute investment
advice and is to be used with discretionary judgement by the trader. Guidelines
for use of this information are given below.
This forecast was made before the beginning of the quarter
and does not include forecasts resulting from market structure after the
quarter began. You can get an update with most recent forecast dates by sending
a request to Jwhite43@adelphia.net.
The dates listed as
potential turning point dates in this report are expected to forecast a
short-term change in the structure of the market. Three different outcomes may
occur on these dates.
(1) The market may reverse direction. Thus if
the market is in a noticeable up move, a high pivot and reversal to down
movement can be anticipated. Traders making investment decisions based on this
information are urged to apply some mechanism to confirm the reversal before
entering or exiting a trade. A confirmation that has proved effective is a
close beyond the opposite extreme of the pivot bar. Therefore, if we are in the
time vicinity of a forecast point and the market is going up, look for a close
below the low of the high pivot bar as a confirmation of the pivot.
(2)
The market may move
sideways or congest. Congestion regions in a market may be caused by a
self-canceling interaction of upward and downward influences. Generally these
moves are characterized by a series if time bars with a range near that of the
last bar of the previous move. This may be a series of inside or outside bars
but with narrow range of closes. These moves are difficult to trade and should
be avoided. They can de expected only about 5 to 10 % of the time.
(3)
The market may accelerate
in the direction it is already moving. These acceleration type moves are rare
and are characteristic of marking the end of a larger trend move. They also may
exhibit a false breakout as if a reversal before continuing in the dominate
direction. These false breakouts generally occur on low volume days and are an
opportunity for market specialist to pick up inventory prior to the
continuation of the move. Whipsaws are common and the trader should have a
close stop policy to deal with these occurrences.
Forecast Dates for YEN
The forecast dates for the
Fourth Quarter, 2003 are listed in Table I below. Dates marked in the table are potential reversals of the dominant
trend of the period. If price is moving down into the forecast window, look for
a reversal to up. If the price is moving up into the forecast window, look for
a reversal to down.
|
Forecast
Date |
High/Low Expectation |
Actual pivot |
Result |
Trade Profitability |
|
10/1/03 |
High |
Inside bar reversal – no pivot |
No Trade |
No Trade |
|
10/6/03 |
Low |
10/6 low |
4 day advance |
Profitable |
|
10/20/03 |
Low |
10/20 low |
2 day advance |
Profitable |
|
10/23-24-27 |
High |
10/22 high 10/23 low |
1 day reverse 4 day advance |
Loss Profitable |
|
10/31/03 |
High |
10/29 high |
3 day decline |
Profitable |
|
11/19/03 |
High |
11/19 high |
4 day decline |
Profitable |
|
12/9/03 |
High |
12/9 high |
2 day decline |
Profitable |
|
Dates generated during the quarter |
|
|
|
|
|
11/3 |
Low |
11/3 low |
5 day advance |
Profitable |
|
11/5 High |
High |
Inside cycle – no pivot |
No Trade |
No trade |
|
11/14 |
High |
11/14 high |
1 day reversal stopped out |
Loss |
|
11/24 |
Low |
11/25 low |
2 day advance |
Profitable |
|
12/1-12/3 |
High |
No pivot |
No Trade |
No trade |
|
12/5-8-9 |
High |
12/9 high |
2 day decline |
Profitable |
|
12/15 |
High |
Outside bar reversal |
Stopped out |
Loss |
|
12/17-18 |
High |
12/17 high |
2 day decline |
Profitable |
Total Forecast Dates 16
Tradable Pivots 13
Profitable 10
Loss 3
Profitability 10/13
= 76.9%